Markets
Sources & method
- How it works. Prices are pulled every hour by a scheduled job and stored. This page reads that stored file — it never calls a price API itself, so it costs nothing to visit and behaves the same at any level of traffic.
- Crypto — CoinGecko. Equities, indices, DXY, oil & gas — Yahoo Finance. Gold, silver, copper — live spot, with gold and silver history from the LBMA official benchmark fixes. US M2 — the St. Louis Fed (FRED).
- Oil and natural gas are front-month futures. There is no free spot feed for either, and the front-month contract is the price the market actually quotes.
- US M2 is published weekly and in arrears, so its date is older than the rest of the table and it has no 24h figure. Its changes are measured from the publication date, not from today.
- N/A means a figure genuinely cannot be computed yet — not zero. Copper has no free spot history, so its changes fill in as days accumulate. SpaceX listed in June 2026, so it has no year-start price to measure against.
- Percentages come from each source's own history where it exists, so a missed day never distorts a number.
Daily Brief
Weekly Review
The record
scored by script, never by handSeven instruments
The seven states
These describe the market's state, not a portfolio position. Every number on this tab is produced by a deterministic script from frozen, backtested parameters; the written commentary explains those numbers and may never change them. Forecasts are stored before the period they cover and scored after it by script — the record above includes every call, and a declined read is never free.
Alpha Hunt
The count
counts, never ratesHow the hunt works
One way to be wrong
A call is a disagreement with a stated, cited consensus — and it is born with the one observable that would prove it wrong, written down before anyone knows the answer.
Never edited
Reviews append to the trail every week; a published call's consensus, disagreement, kill condition and arrival marker are never edited. Status judges the idea, not the price: a call can strengthen while its instrument falls.
Counts, never rates
With a handful of calls a year, a quoted accuracy figure would be noise wearing a uniform — so this tab refuses to print one. The record above is counts, never rates, by design. No percentage appears here.
The five statuses
Experiments
Two paper-money experiments, run unattended. This sub-tab is a glance, not a report — the weekly sub-tabs carry the detail.